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- Junior’s Bold Round of 12 Prediction; Kyle Petty’s Warning for JGR; and Keselowski’s Big NASCAR Fix
Junior’s Bold Round of 12 Prediction; Kyle Petty’s Warning for JGR; and Keselowski’s Big NASCAR Fix
Jerry Bonkowski
September 19, 2025
Welcome to Hoot in the Oval — your all-access pass to everything NASCAR. From Denny’s clutch finishes to Ross’ wild moves, Chase Elliott fandom to Bubba’s bold takes — we’ve got the stories that fuel the track and the timeline. Fast, loud, unfiltered. Buckle up, y’all. 🏁
The latest edition of our newsletter covers:
Junior picks the drivers he thinks will struggle in the second round of the NASCAR playoffs
Kyle Petty cites Joey Logano’s example while urging JGR to perform consistently
Brad Keselowski’s 3-fold plan on how NASCAR can boost its appeal
🏁Inside the Oval
Dale Earnhardt Jr. Makes Surprising Prediction About Which Drivers Will Struggle in the Playoffs Round of 12
The second round of the NASCAR Cup playoffs is set to begin this Sunday at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. And Dale Earnhardt Jr. pulled out his crystal ball to predict how things will play out on the track.
With Alex Bowman, Shane Van Gisbergen, Austin Dillon, and Josh Berry eliminated after the Round of 16, the attention now focuses on who will get through the three Round of 12 quarterfinal races at New Hampshire, Kansas, and the Charlotte Roval road course.
Junior didn’t mince words or drag out his predictions. He named the four drivers that he thinks will have a tough time pretty bluntly.
“This is really hard,” Earnhardt said on this week’s Dale Jr. Download podcast. “No scientific data here, no evidence or real hard study to back up this prediction, but my four that are going to struggle to make it into the next round are Chase Elliott, [Austin] Cindric, [Ross] Chastain, and [Tyler] Reddick.”
Those are some pretty stout picks, especially with Junior discounting Reddick, who many still believe will make it into the Championship 4 round if he can get his act together. After finishing second in the playoff opener at Darlington, Reddick finished 16th at Gateway and 15th at Bristol. Had he not had such a strong showing at the Lady In Black, Reddick potentially could have been eliminated during the opening round.
What’s more, Reddick has struggled at both Loudon and the Roval, although he does have one past win at Kansas. “Reddick worries me a little bit,” Earnhardt said. “I don't see the speed that I think they're capable of.”
Earnhardt admits he also has some concern about three-time and defending Cup champion Joey Logano, who comes into Sunday’s race tied for 10th with Chastain in the standings, just one point above the cutoff line (Reddick is currently 12th).
“Logano had a tire test at Loudon,” Earnhardt said. “Jeff Burton was talking about it this week. I feel like Louden and Kansas are two good tracks for Joey. So I think he'll do just enough to advance.”
Earnhardt is also keeping an eye on former Hendrick Motorsports teammate Chase Elliott. The 2020 NASCAR Cup champion was in the top five in the Cup point standings for much of the regular season, including several weeks as No. 1.
However, during the first round of the playoffs, he finished 17th at Darlington, third at Gateway, and then crashed out and finished 38th last Saturday at Bristol.
“How does Chase Elliott not get eliminated?” Earnhardt asked. “At the start of the year, they were the most consistent team in the garage and led the points, right? So, I mean, his points are worthy. But where is my confidence? I guess they've been just so quietly doing this that I don't look at the other names, and I'm like, at plus-five, is he going to be able to do enough to sort of separate himself?”
And then there is 23XI Racing’s Bubba Wallace, whose form makes Junior pick him as a dark horse.
“Bubba's really kind of turned it up another notch this year,” Earnhardt said. “Seems like since Indy, he's sort of switched into another gear that I've never seen him really have before. Just in his pace and speed, his confidence, and that he deserves to be up there, can do it, should be able to do it.”
🗣️ Pit Politics
Kyle Petty Brings Up Joey Logano’s Epic Collapse to Warn Joe Gibbs Racing Against Complacency
Kyle Petty isn’t a Debby Downer. But the former NASCAR Cup driver has gone on record that Joe Gibbs Racing, though flying high right now after its three drivers swept all three Round of 16 playoff races, could get a rude awakening in the upcoming Round of 12.
Chase Briscoe won the playoff opener at Darlington, Denny Hamlin won his fifth race of the season at Gateway, and Christopher Bell won this past Saturday night at Bristol. Coming into Sunday’s Round of 12 opener, JGR drivers dominate the point standings: Hamlin is first, Bell is fourth. Briscoe has slipped slightly to sixth, although he’s just 16 points behind Hamlin.
“Let’s talk dominance, specifically JGR dominance,” Petty said on his NASCAR.com podcast. “They dominated the first round of the playoffs this year. That is phenomenal when you look at the first three races with Chase Briscoe, Denny Hamlin, and now Christopher Bell. Amazing. Toyota has come out of the box strong, and JGR is hanging on.”
But then Petty warned the Gibbs camp. “But I want to caution everybody: Do not put JGR on that championship trophy just yet,” he said. “Do not write any of those drivers’ names on that championship trophy just yet.”
Petty then pointed out what can happen when a team either gets overconfident or suddenly goes into an unexpected slump – and it costs them dearly. He cited a poignant example, too.
“Let’s go back to 2015,” Petty said. “That’s the only time a single round has been won by one owner, one manufacturer, and also with one driver, Joey Logano. He swept a round [Round of 12] in the playoffs, which was unheard of at the time and has been unheard of since.”
“The problem is, he didn’t go on to win the championship. Oops! Kyle Busch won the championship with JGR and in a Toyota,” added Petty.
Logano won all three Round of 12 races at Charlotte (the speedway, not the Roval), Kansas, and Talladega that year. But then disaster struck in the Round of 8 semifinals: Logano started the round with a 37th-place finish at Martinsville and was dead last (40th) at Texas.
While it was admirable that he bounced back with a third-place finish in the final race of the Round of 8 at Phoenix, it was not enough to stop him from being eliminated. Had Logano had better finishes, he potentially could have won his first championship.
Petty proceeded to advise JGR, its drivers, and its fans: Be careful, VERY careful!
“Will these guys [three JGR drivers] make it forward? Will they move into the final round? Will we have three of those cars there? I doubt it. I doubt that Chase Briscoe, Denny Hamlin, and Christopher Bell will all make it to that final round. Somebody’s going to get eliminated. One of those guys is not going to make it to that last race,” predicted Petty.”
“Dominance now is good, but dominance at Phoenix is a lot better. Remember, don’t write their names in yet. Don’t give it to JGR, don’t give it to Toyota. That’s why we race, people. You never know what’s going to happen,” he concluded.
🏁 Trackside Trivia
New Hampshire lore: Did you know?
New Hampshire Motor Speedway has hosted a NASCAR Playoffs race 15 times in its history, with the upcoming 2025 event (the Mobil 1 300) a return to that tradition.
Jeff Burton led all 300 laps in the Dura Lube 300 at New Hampshire in 2000. That was the last time in Cup history a driver has led every lap of a race
A 19-year-old Joey Logano got his first Cup win at the track in 2009. The victory made him the youngest winner in modern NASCAR history at the time.
🎙️ Hoot’s Radio Chatter
Brad Keselowski Gives Sweeping Suggestions for NASCAR to Gain Popularity
Brad Keselowski doesn’t mince words. If he sees something that he perceives as wrong or in need of change, he speaks up. The 2012 Cup champ, who failed to qualify for this year’s playoffs, is concerned about NASCAR, its current level of popularity among sports fans. And Keselowski has some things in mind that he feels can help the sport gain popularity.
Speaking to The Athletic this week, Keselowski was very open with his analysis of the sport today, as well as what it needs to do to grow. He called his ideas the “big three.”
First are racetracks. “[They] need to find more ways to generate revenue outside of NASCAR. A lot of these tracks you go to, if you come to them on a Tuesday, three weeks before or after the race, there’s like three people that work there. There’s nobody around,” Keselowski said.
“The tracks aren’t able to raise enough capital to invest in the fan experience, or they’re significantly subsidized out of the media rights [TV deal] to make their business sustainable. That creates a series of dominoes downstream, whether it be the fan experience that doesn’t rival other sports or draining cash flow that potentially could be coming to the teams and enabling things like testing.”
Second is the current playoff format. NASCAR is rumored to make significant changes to the format, with most reports indicating a 3-3-4 format. That means, like the current system, eight drivers will be eliminated after the first two rounds, leaving the remaining eight drivers to battle it out for the championship in a new four-race series. This will eventually lead to crowning a champion, as opposed to the current Championship 4 system.
“The nuance of having 10 races that are more important than 20-some others is very unhealthy for the sport,” Keselowski said. “It’s demeaning to the other tracks and races. And unfortunately, those 10 races that are supposed to mean more are in direct competition with other sports. It muddies the water. It’s not working for the sport. Those two would be 1A and 1B [how Keselowski would rank the significance of tracks and playoffs combined].”
Third is the possibility of a fourth manufacturer in the future. Keselowski believes that a fourth OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer) could be on the horizon for NASCAR, in addition to Chevrolet, Ford, and Toyota.
Actually, a fourth OEM is already on the way: Dodge’s Ram brand will return to NASCAR next season in the Craftsman Truck Series. Many observers believe this is just a first step towards Dodge eventually joining the Xfinity (soon to be O’Reilly Auto Parts) Series and then advancing to the top tier of the sport.
“Third, I’d look at new OEMs as very important — a high tide that raises all ships,” Keselowski said. “They’ll invest in the teams while concurrently investing in the tracks through advertising, along with our media rights holders.”
Although Keselowski did not say it, with the Ram brand and potentially parent company Dodge coming into the sport could perhaps lead to a fifth major manufacturer coming in. There have been numerous rumors in recent years that NASCAR was trying to attract another foreign manufacturer to enter the sport.
Companies like Nissan, Kia, BMW, and others have all been rumored to be interested in NASCAR, but thus far, none have taken the next step as Ram and Dodge have done.
🏁 Lap Back in Time: NASCAR Stat of the Year
(One stat. One year. Every edition.)
1956: Convertible NASCAR racecars and a hectic schedule
NASCAR began a Convertible Division in 1956. Bob Welborn won the inaugural championship. After four seasons, the division was dropped from the schedule.
That year, the Grand National (now Cup) season had 56 races. It was indeed a hectic schedule compared to the 36-race season today.